Is the Next Pandemic Upon Us?
Epidemiologists have long been concerned about zoonotic diseases that could cross from one species to another, infecting human populations.
One such potential disease is avian flu, which has been spreading in bird flocks around the world and across the USA.
Recently, there have been reports of avian flu infecting cattle on ranches in Texas.
Epidemiologists have been gravely concerned that it would just be a matter of time before avian flu mutated and began to infect human populations.
These fears were confirmed when reports surfaced of a dairy farm worker in Texas becoming infected with a version of avian flu. Concerned about these outbreaks, the CDC issued new guidance this month on how to identify human infection cases.
With memories of coronavirus still fresh in our minds, let’s look at what public health officials, epidemiologists, lab researchers, and government officials are doing to help prevent the next pandemic – dubbed Disease X.
What is Disease X?
Disease X is the term used by the public health and the disease research community to refer to one of many possible diseases that could threaten to flare up into a new epidemic or, even worse, escalate into a global pandemic.
In the context of a global “Disease X” outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) considers these pathogens to be among those of greatest concern:
· COVID-19 (and its emerging variants)
· Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
· Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease
· Lassa fever
· Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
· Nipah and henipaviral diseases
· Rift Valley fever
· Zika
Given the Potential Threats from an Emerging Disease X, How Should We Proceed?
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, working through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has been very vocal in calling for stepped-up preparations to better respond to the next potential pandemic threat.
In his book, How to Prevent the Next Pandemic, Bill Gates discusses the lessons learned from the Covid pandemic and what we should do now to prevent the next pandemic.
Gates asserts we should be more realistic about the devastation caused by Covid. While the official count of worldwide Covid deaths is reportedly nearly 6 million, the total number of global excess deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic was much higher, estimated at just over 18 million.
Time is not our friend when it comes to communicable diseases, such as Covid, that can spread easily and rapidly across populations. Given our interconnected world, we are one international airline flight away from the potential introduction of a highly dangerous pathogen.
Gates points out that the first 100 days of an outbreak are critical. “If we had stopped the COVID pandemic before 100 days, we could’ve saved over 98 percent of the lives lost,” Gates writes.
To achieve success, we need to recognize that rapid and effective cooperation between countries is crucial to our collective success in preventing a disease outbreak from growing from a dangerous epidemic into a devastating global pandemic.
Gates is proposing the deployment of a Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization (GERM) team. Gates envisions this GERM team as a permanently deployed group of full-time paid professional experts that would take on the current volunteer-based efforts of various NGOs (such as the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network or GOARN.)
Gates believes the GERM team should report to the World Health Organization and the estimated $1 billion in collective GERM team annual salaries should be paid for by member governments.
To Successfully Combat the Next Pandemic, Better International Cooperation Will Be Key
Public health officials are in alignment with many of Bill Gates’ recommendations.
At the recent 2024 World Economic Forum conference in Davos, Switzerland, prominent leaders attended a presentation by the Partnership for Health System Sustainability and Resilience (PHSSR), a group co-founded by UK pharma giant AstraZeneca, which was instrumental in distributing Covid vaccines to less developed countries.
In the PHSSR presentation “Preparing for Disease X,” public health experts stressed the need to focus on implementing or enhancing the following initiatives to help prevent another disease outbreak from escalating into a global pandemic:
· Improved Public Health Infrastructure
· Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Predictions
· Ensure Equity in Health Access Across the World
· Improved Surveillance and Openness in Reporting
· Shared Sacrifice among Member States
· Drill Teams (similar to Gates’ GERM Team Initiative)
· Investment in Preventative Healthcare
· Investment in Public Health (Better Centralized Monitoring)
Negotiations Remain Ongoing for a new WHO Pandemic Agreement Treaty
The World Health Organization (WHO) has zeroed in on many of these recommendations. It has been lobbying member countries to sign onto a global WHO Pandemic Agreement treaty that would codify many key principles to improve cooperation, information sharing, and equitable responses to the threat of an emerging epidemic disease.
Intensive negotiations took place for ten days in March 2024 as part of the ninth meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB9) – however several countries have expressed concerns, putting the ultimate ratification goal in doubt.
Negotiations are scheduled to resume on April 29, 2024, in hopes of getting an international agreement ratified sometime in May 2024.
If we are threatened with a new epidemic in the meantime, such as alien flu, this may sharpen the minds of some members to reconsider their opposition.
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